#75 Mountain West Conference

San Diego State

Projected 7–4 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does San Diego State win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#105

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Portland State96%
W2@ UCLA28%
W3vs James Madison37%
W4@ Toledo57%
W5vs Texas St64%
W6@ Oregon St73%
W7vs Fresno State60%
W8@ Colorado St72%
W9vs Washington St69%
W11vs Utah State73%
W12@ Boise State29%

Chaos meter25 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to UCLA → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 2%
16-team field: 4%
24-team field: 11%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 2% → 2%

Pre 2%Aug 2%

Up next

vs Portland State· W196% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where San Diego State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#43

+6.7 · off #90 / def #28

Talent composite

#86

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#78

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

80%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#90

EPA / play#95
Success rate#82
Explosiveness#107

Defense#28

EPA / play#3
Success rate#9

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

2.9★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.