Week 11 · College Football

Arizona State vs UCF prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Arizona State a 59% chance to beat UCF in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#35 Big 12 Conference

Arizona State

8% to make the 12

@

#73 Big 12 Conference

UCF

4% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadArizona State −3.5Model
Projected scoreArizona State 28 — UCF 24

A coin flip. The model nudges Arizona State by a field goal — 59% to win.

Chaos meter82 · TOSS-UP
82/ 100
CalmMayhem

Arizona State

59%

to win

UCF

41%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Arizona State
vs
UCF
#89Offense · EPA/play#83
#44Defense · EPA/play#53
#49Explosiveness#11
#104Success rate#100
70%Returning production31%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

2 meetings all-time

Arizona State leads 2–0

Last met 2024 · Arizona State 35–31 UCF— Arizona State won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Arizona State is hearing

What UCF is hearing

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