#35 Big 12 Conference

Arizona State

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Arizona State win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#12

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Morgan State98%
W2@ Texas A&M17%
W3vs Kansas63%
W5vs Baylor60%
W6vs Hawai'i85%
W7@ Texas Tech14%
W8vs Kansas State47%
W9@ BYU23%
W10vs Colorado73%
W11@ UCF59%
W12vs Oklahoma State69%
W13@ Arizona37%

Chaos meter38 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas Tech → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 8%
16-team field: 11%
24-team field: 20%
Win conference: 4%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 8% → 8%

Pre 8%Aug 8%

Up next

vs Morgan State· W198% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Arizona State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#60

+3.9 · off #59 / def #44

Talent composite

#33

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#44

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

70%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#59

EPA / play#89
Success rate#104
Explosiveness#49

Defense#44

EPA / play#44
Success rate#58

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.