#73 Big 12 Conference

UCF

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does UCF win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#52

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Bethune-Cookman96%
W2@ Pittsburgh27%
W3vs Georgia St90%
W4vs TCU44%
W5@ Houston18%
W6@ Oklahoma State37%
W8vs BYU22%
W9vs Baylor43%
W10@ Kansas38%
W11vs Arizona State41%
W12vs Iowa State54%
W13@ Colorado42%

Chaos meter34 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Houston → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 4%
16-team field: 6%
24-team field: 12%
Win conference: 1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 4% → 4%

Pre 4%Aug 4%

Up next

vs Bethune-Cookman· W196% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where UCF finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#76

-1.2 · off #98 / def #51

Talent composite

#43

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#79

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

31%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#98

EPA / play#83
Success rate#100
Explosiveness#11

Defense#51

EPA / play#53
Success rate#82

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

2.9★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-3

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.