Week 12 · College Football

Iowa State vs UCF prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives UCF a 54% chance to beat Iowa State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#62 Big 12 Conference

Iowa State

4% to make the 12

@

#73 Big 12 Conference

UCF

4% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadUCF −1.5Model
Projected scoreIowa State 25 — UCF 27

A coin flip. The model nudges UCF by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP
92/ 100
CalmMayhem

Iowa State

46%

to win

UCF

54%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Iowa State
vs
UCF
#52Offense · EPA/play#83
#35Defense · EPA/play#53
#89Explosiveness#11
#38Success rate#100
58%Returning production31%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

Iowa State leads 1–0

Last met 2024 · Iowa State 38–35 UCF— Iowa State won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Iowa State is hearing

What UCF is hearing

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