Week 5 · College Football

California vs UNLV prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives California a 56% chance to beat UNLV in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#64 Atlantic Coast Conference

California

7% to make the 12

@

#76 Mountain West Conference

UNLV

2% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadCalifornia −2.5Model
Projected scoreCalifornia 27 — UNLV 25

A coin flip. The model nudges California by a field goal — 56% to win.

Chaos meter87 · TOSS-UP
87/ 100
CalmMayhem

California

56%

to win

UNLV

44%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
California
vs
UNLV
#93Offense · EPA/play#17
#75Defense · EPA/play#112
#64Explosiveness#14
#89Success rate#23
23%Returning production15%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

2 meetings all-time

All square 1–1

Last met 2024 · UNLV 24–13 California (neutral)— UNLV won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What California is hearing

What UNLV is hearing

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