#64 Atlantic Coast Conference

California

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does California win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#61

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs UCLA50%
W2@ Syracuse55%
W3vs Wagner97%
W4vs Clemson42%
W5@ UNLV56%
W6vs Virginia Tech63%
W7vs Wake Forest64%
W8@ SMU23%
W9@ NC State37%
W11@ Virginia34%
W12vs Stanford77%
W13vs Pittsburgh48%

Chaos meter47 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to SMU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 7%
16-team field: 11%
24-team field: 17%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 7% → 7%

Pre 7%Aug 7%

Up next

vs UCLA· W150% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where California finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#80

-3.2 · off #77 / def #72

Talent composite

#36

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#69

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

23%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#77

EPA / play#93
Success rate#89
Explosiveness#64

Defense#72

EPA / play#75
Success rate#78

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.2★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-4

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.