Week 4 · College Football

Troy vs Utah State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Utah State a 56% chance to beat Troy in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#88 Sun Belt Conference

Troy

1% to make the 12

@

#97 Mountain West Conference

Utah State

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadUtah State −2.5Model
Projected scoreTroy 25 — Utah State 27

A coin flip. The model nudges Utah State by a field goal — 56% to win.

Chaos meter87 · TOSS-UP
87/ 100
CalmMayhem

Troy

44%

to win

Utah State

56%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Troy
vs
Utah State
#114Offense · EPA/play#42
#51Defense · EPA/play#101
#40Explosiveness#17
#117Success rate#84
33%Returning production63%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

3 meetings all-time

Troy leads 2–1

Last met 2004 · Troy 49–21 Utah State— Troy won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Troy is hearing

What Utah State is hearing

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