#97 Mountain West Conference

Utah State

Projected 5–6 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Utah State win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#73

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Idaho State92%
W2@ Washington9%
W3@ Utah9%
W4vs Troy56%
W5@ Boise State17%
W6vs Washington St53%
W8@ Texas St32%
W9vs Colorado St71%
W10vs Fresno State43%
W11@ San Diego State27%
W12@ Oregon St57%

Chaos meter21 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Washington → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 3%
Win conference: 1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Idaho State· W192% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Utah State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#79

-3.1 · off #53 / def #98

Talent composite

#114

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#87

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

63%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#53

EPA / play#42
Success rate#84
Explosiveness#17

Defense#98

EPA / play#101
Success rate#90

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

+10

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.