Week 11 · College Football

California vs Virginia prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Virginia a 64% chance to beat California in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#64 Atlantic Coast Conference

California

7% to make the 12

@

#43 Atlantic Coast Conference

Virginia

11% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadVirginia −5.5Model
Projected scoreCalifornia 23 — Virginia 29

Virginia is the pick by 5.5, but it's live — 64% on the model.

Chaos meter72 · LIVE
72/ 100
CalmMayhem

California

36%

to win

Virginia

64%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
California
vs
Virginia
#93Offense · EPA/play#61
#75Defense · EPA/play#23
#64Explosiveness#46
#89Success rate#80
23%Returning production28%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

Virginia leads 1–0

Last met 2025 · California 21–31 Virginia— Virginia won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What California is hearing

What Virginia is hearing

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