American Athletic Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Rice to finish 3-8 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 27%, averaging 2.7 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-8
27% likely
Expected wins
2.7
11 rated games
Vegas win total
3.5
market
Model vs market
-0.8
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Notre Dame
Week 2 · 1% to win
Easiest game
vs Tulsa
Week 7 · 46% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.