← Week 3 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 3

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

7 of the 56 college football games in Week 3 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by UTSA at Texas. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • UTSA at Texas2 spots swing · 92% home

    If Texas wins
    Boise State make the field

    If UTSA wins
    UTSA make the field

  • USC at Rutgers2 spots swing · 15% home

    If Rutgers wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If USC wins
    USC make the field

  • Kentucky at Texas A&M2 spots swing · 86% home

    If Texas A&M wins
    Texas A&M make the field

    If Kentucky wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • LSU at Ole Miss2 spots swing · 51% home

    If Ole Miss wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If LSU wins
    LSU make the field

  • Houston at Texas Tech2 spots swing · 77% home

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

    If Houston wins
    BYU make the field

  • Tulane at Kansas State2 spots swing · 71% home

    If Kansas State wins
    Boise State make the field

    If Tulane wins
    Tulane make the field

  • UTEP at Michigan2 spots swing · 99% home

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

    If UTEP wins
    Ole Miss make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.