← Week 7 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 7

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

7 of the 57 college football games in Week 7 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by Notre Dame at BYU. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • Notre Dame at BYU2 spots swing · 17% home

    If BYU wins
    BYU make the field

    If Notre Dame wins
    Texas Tech make the field

  • Penn State at Michigan2 spots swing · 71% home

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

    If Penn State wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Missouri at Ole Miss2 spots swing · 67% home

    If Ole Miss wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If Missouri wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Alabama at Tennessee2 spots swing · 49% home

    If Tennessee wins
    Michigan make the field

    If Alabama wins
    Alabama make the field

  • Memphis at Tulane2 spots swing · 60% home

    If Tulane wins
    Tulane make the field

    If Memphis wins
    Boise State make the field

  • Kentucky at Oklahoma2 spots swing · 83% home

    If Oklahoma wins
    Oklahoma make the field

    If Kentucky wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Arizona State at Texas Tech2 spots swing · 84% home

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

    If Arizona State wins
    BYU make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.