← Week 9 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 9

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

7 of the 54 college football games in Week 9 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by Ohio State at USC. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • Ohio State at USC2 spots swing · 37% home

    If USC wins
    USC make the field

    If Ohio State wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Auburn at Ole Miss2 spots swing · 68% home

    If Ole Miss wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If Auburn wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Michigan at Rutgers2 spots swing · 15% home

    If Rutgers wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Arizona State at BYU2 spots swing · 75% home

    If BYU wins
    BYU make the field

    If Arizona State wins
    Texas Tech make the field

  • South Carolina at Oklahoma2 spots swing · 71% home

    If Oklahoma wins
    Oklahoma make the field

    If South Carolina wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Arizona at Texas Tech2 spots swing · 81% home

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

    If Arizona wins
    BYU make the field

  • Texas St at Boise State2 spots swing · 74% home

    If Boise State wins
    Boise State make the field

    If Texas St wins
    Tulane make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.