What happened
Brendan Sorsby's college career is over. The NCAA ruled the Texas Tech quarterback ineligible for roughly $90,000 in sports wagers placed over four years — including bets involving his own teams. A Lubbock judge briefly revived his season with an injunction in June, college sports' power brokers erupted, and in the end Sorsby dropped his lawsuit, entered treatment, and was ruled out for good. The NFL declined to hold a supplemental draft. He won't play football in 2026.
Texas Tech's quarterback room is now Will Hammond — the touted redshirt sophomore long viewed as the program's future, working back from a torn ACL and expected around Week 3 — with Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis bridging the first two games.
What we changed
Our preseason strength ratings are built from prior-year performance data, which means they had Texas Tech priced with a proven multi-year starter at quarterback. That's no longer the roster. We docked Texas Tech 1.5 points on the rating scale — roughly half an expected win.
Full transparency: our first instinct was a steeper cut (3 points), and we revised it the same day after an editorial review. The reasoning: Texas Tech was clearly the class of the Big 12 in 2025, Hammond is a genuinely regarded heir rather than an emergency option, and a roster that dominant has earned the benefit of the doubt until real games say otherwise. Every adjustment like this is logged publicly with its reasoning — that's the deal.
What moved
The playoff odds dropped from 46.4% to 41.4%, the Big 12 title odds from 29.5% to 25.6%, and the national title odds from 2.9% to 1.7%. The gains flowed exactly where you'd expect: to the rest of the Big 12.
The fun part is the auto-bid race. Our projected 12-team field gives each conference's spot to its highest-ranked team, and after the adjustment Texas Tech and BYU sit in a literal dead heat on the public combined ranking — 60.5 to 60.5 — with Texas Tech holding the spot on the model-forecast tiebreaker. It does not get closer than that.
What it means
Texas Tech opens the season as the Big 12 favorite and the projected auto-bid — wounded, not dethroned. The first month is the story: Francis bridges two games, Hammond returns around the conference opener, and by October the field will have settled what the tiebreaker currently decides. If BYU or anyone else in the league wants that spot, it's winnable on the field — which is exactly where this should be decided.