The Cut Line

Last one in

Boise State

Clinging to the 12 at 3%

First one out

Alabama

Next up at 31% — needs help

Bid thief

Boise State

In on the auto-bid, ranked #42

In the field

4

Notre Dame

Locked in83%

2

Oregon

Locked in64%

5

Indiana

Locked in63%

7

Miami

Locked in58%

1

Ohio State

Locked in52%

3

Texas

In49%

12

Texas Tech

In46%

6

Georgia

In43%

9

USC

In32%

8

Michigan

Sweating31%

10

Texas A&M

Sweating31%

42

Boise State

Last one in3%

The cut line

On the outside

15

Alabama

First one out31%

11

LSU

One play away30%

17

Penn State

One play away25%

16

BYU

Needs chaos22%

13

Oklahoma

Needs chaos22%

19

Utah

Needs chaos21%

% is each team's chance to make the 12-team playoff in our simulation. "Auto-bid" teams hold a reserved conference-champion spot; a "bid thief" is in on that auto-bid despite a lower ranking.