The Cut Line

Last one in

Boise State

Clinging to the 12 at 3%

First one out

Alabama

Next up at 31% — needs help

Bid thief

Boise State

In on the auto-bid, ranked #44

In the field

1

Notre Dame

Locked in82%

3

Oregon

Locked in65%

4

Indiana

Locked in63%

6

Miami

Locked in57%

2

Ohio State

Locked in52%

11

Texas Tech

In51%

5

Texas

In48%

9

Georgia

In43%

10

Texas A&M

In31%

8

USC

Sweating31%

7

Michigan

Sweating31%

44

Boise State

Last one in3%

The cut line

On the outside

14

Alabama

First one out31%

13

LSU

One play away30%

17

BYU

One play away26%

16

Penn State

Needs chaos25%

12

Oklahoma

Needs chaos22%

15

Ole Miss

Needs chaos21%

% is each team's chance to make the 12-team playoff in our simulation. "Auto-bid" teams hold a reserved conference-champion spot; a "bid thief" is in on that auto-bid despite a lower ranking.