#17 Big 12 Conference

BYU

Projected 9–3 · 9 proj. wins

Playoff:BUBBLE

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does BYU win? The Ninjas project 9.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

26%

Title

Win conf

16%

SOS

#69

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Utah Tech99%
W2vs Arizona73%
W3@ Colorado St93%
W5@ TCU67%
W6vs Iowa State85%
W7vs Notre Dame15%
W8@ UCF78%
W9vs Arizona State77%
W10@ Utah51%
W11vs Baylor79%
W12@ Kansas75%
W13vs Cincinnati84%

Chaos meter50 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Notre Dame → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSWin out, then scoreboard-watch → contenders ahead have to slip.

Full odds

Make the 12: 26%
16-team field: 34%
24-team field: 47%
Win conference: 16%
National title: 1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 26% → 26%

Pre 26%Aug 26%

Up next

vs Utah Tech· W199% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where BYU finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#18

+15.9 · off #24 / def #22

Talent composite

#70

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#55

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

87%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#24

EPA / play#33
Success rate#27
Explosiveness#106

Defense#22

EPA / play#22
Success rate#33

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-4

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.