#11 Big 12 Conference

Texas Tech

Projected 11–1 · 11 proj. wins

Playoff:IN

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Texas Tech win? The Ninjas project 11.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

51%

Title

Win conf

32%

SOS

#85

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Abilene Christian>99%
W2@ Oregon St96%
W3vs Houston80%
W4vs Sam Houston99%
W5@ Colorado87%
W7vs Arizona State86%
W8@ Cincinnati84%
W9vs Arizona83%
W10vs West Virginia92%
W11@ Oklahoma State84%
W12@ Baylor78%
W13vs TCU88%

Chaos meter55 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin the Big 12 Conference → the auto-bid and you're in.
RISKDrop one you should win → the bubble math turns ugly.
CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.

Full odds

Make the 12: 51%
16-team field: 62%
24-team field: 74%
Win conference: 32%
National title: 3%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 51% → 51%

Pre 51%Aug 51%

Up next

vs Abilene Christian· W1>99% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Texas Tech finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

+27.6 · off #7 / def #3

Talent composite

#29

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#48

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

59%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#7

EPA / play#23
Success rate#50
Explosiveness#31

Defense#3

EPA / play#2
Success rate#3

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.