Week 3 · NFL

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 54% chance to beat New England Patriots in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#15 AFC East

New England Patriots

63% to make the playoffs

@

#17 AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

43% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadJacksonville Jaguars −1.5Vegas
Projected scoreNew England Patriots 21 — Jacksonville Jaguars 23

A coin flip. The model nudges Jacksonville Jaguars by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter91 · TOSS-UP
91/ 100
CalmMayhem

New England Patriots

46%

to win

Jacksonville Jaguars

54%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
New England Patriots
vs
Jacksonville Jaguars
#1Offense · EPA/play#14
#11Defense · EPA/play#3
#3Success rate#15

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

11 meetings since 1999

New England Patriots leads 9–2

Last met 2024 · Jacksonville Jaguars 32–16 New England Patriots (neutral)— Jacksonville Jaguars won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What New England Patriots is hearing

What Jacksonville Jaguars is hearing

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