Week 4 · NFL

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Buffalo Bills a 60% chance to beat New England Patriots in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#15 AFC East

New England Patriots

63% to make the playoffs

@

#5 AFC East

Buffalo Bills

85% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadBuffalo Bills −3.5Vegas
Projected scoreNew England Patriots 20 — Buffalo Bills 24

A coin flip. The model nudges Buffalo Bills by a field goal — 60% to win.

Chaos meter80 · TOSS-UP
80/ 100
CalmMayhem

New England Patriots

40%

to win

Buffalo Bills

60%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
New England Patriots
vs
Buffalo Bills
#1Offense · EPA/play#3
#11Defense · EPA/play#13
#3Success rate#2

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

55 meetings since 1999

New England Patriots leads 39–16

Last met 2025 · New England Patriots 31–35 Buffalo Bills— Buffalo Bills won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What New England Patriots is hearing

What Buffalo Bills is hearing

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