Week 6 · NFL · Neutral site

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 54% chance to beat Houston Texans in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#13 AFC South

Houston Texans

68% to make the playoffs

@

#17 AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

43% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadJacksonville Jaguars −1.5Vegas
Projected scoreHouston Texans 21 — Jacksonville Jaguars 23

A coin flip. The model nudges Jacksonville Jaguars by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter91 · TOSS-UP
91/ 100
CalmMayhem

Houston Texans

46%

to win

Jacksonville Jaguars

54%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Houston Texans
vs
Jacksonville Jaguars
#21Offense · EPA/play#14
#1Defense · EPA/play#3
#28Success rate#15

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

48 meetings since 1999

Houston Texans leads 32–16

Last met 2025 · Houston Texans 36–29 Jacksonville Jaguars— Houston Texans won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Houston Texans is hearing

What Jacksonville Jaguars is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.