Week 12 · NFL

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Buffalo Bills a 57% chance to beat Kansas City Chiefs in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#8 AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

80% to make the playoffs

@

#5 AFC East

Buffalo Bills

85% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadBuffalo Bills −2.5Vegas
Projected scoreKansas City Chiefs 21 — Buffalo Bills 23

A coin flip. The model nudges Buffalo Bills by a field goal — 57% to win.

Chaos meter85 · TOSS-UP
85/ 100
CalmMayhem

Kansas City Chiefs

43%

to win

Buffalo Bills

57%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Kansas City Chiefs
vs
Buffalo Bills
#11Offense · EPA/play#3
#12Defense · EPA/play#13
#14Success rate#2

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

23 meetings since 1999

Buffalo Bills leads 12–11

Last met 2025 · Buffalo Bills 28–21 Kansas City Chiefs— Buffalo Bills won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Kansas City Chiefs is hearing

What Buffalo Bills is hearing

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