Week 13 · NFL

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Buffalo Bills a 51% chance to beat New England Patriots in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#5 AFC East

Buffalo Bills

85% to make the playoffs

@

#15 AFC East

New England Patriots

63% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadBuffalo Bills −0.5Model
Projected scoreBuffalo Bills 22 — New England Patriots 22

A coin flip. The model nudges Buffalo Bills by a field goal — 51% to win.

Chaos meter97 · TOSS-UP
97/ 100
CalmMayhem

Buffalo Bills

51%

to win

New England Patriots

49%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Buffalo Bills
vs
New England Patriots
#3Offense · EPA/play#1
#13Defense · EPA/play#11
#2Success rate#3

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

55 meetings since 1999

New England Patriots leads 39–16

Last met 2025 · New England Patriots 31–35 Buffalo Bills— Buffalo Bills won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Buffalo Bills is hearing

What New England Patriots is hearing

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