Week 5 · College Football

Toledo vs Ball State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Toledo a 75% chance to beat Ball State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#92 Mid-American Conference

Toledo

1% to make the 12

@

#136 Mid-American Conference

Ball State

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadToledo −10.5Model
Projected scoreToledo 31 — Ball State 21

Toledo should handle it: 10.5-point edge, 75% to win.

Chaos meter50 · LEAN
50/ 100
CalmMayhem

Toledo

75%

to win

Ball State

25%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Toledo
vs
Ball State
#44Offense · EPA/play#133
#1Defense · EPA/play#87
#87Explosiveness#29
#43Success rate#136
69%Returning production8%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

50 meetings all-time

Toledo leads 28–21–1

Last met 2025 · Toledo 38–9 Ball State— Toledo won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Toledo is hearing

What Ball State is hearing

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