Week 10 · NFL · Neutral site

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives New England Patriots a 54% chance to beat Detroit Lions in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#15 AFC East

New England Patriots

63% to make the playoffs

@

#9 NFC North

Detroit Lions

69% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadNew England Patriots −1.5Vegas
Projected scoreNew England Patriots 23 — Detroit Lions 21

A coin flip. The model nudges New England Patriots by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter91 · TOSS-UP
91/ 100
CalmMayhem

New England Patriots

54%

to win

Detroit Lions

46%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
New England Patriots
vs
Detroit Lions
#1Offense · EPA/play#7
#11Defense · EPA/play#14
#3Success rate#12

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

7 meetings since 1999

New England Patriots leads 5–2

Last met 2022 · New England Patriots 29–0 Detroit Lions— New England Patriots won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What New England Patriots is hearing

What Detroit Lions is hearing

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