Week 14 · NFL

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Houston Texans a 54% chance to beat Washington Commanders in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#13 AFC South

Houston Texans

68% to make the playoffs

@

#21 NFC East

Washington Commanders

15% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadHouston Texans −1.5Model
Projected scoreHouston Texans 23 — Washington Commanders 21

A coin flip. The model nudges Houston Texans by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter91 · TOSS-UP
91/ 100
CalmMayhem

Houston Texans

54%

to win

Washington Commanders

46%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Houston Texans
vs
Washington Commanders
#21Offense · EPA/play#18
#1Defense · EPA/play#30
#28Success rate#10

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

6 meetings since 1999

All square 3–3

Last met 2022 · Houston Texans 10–23 Washington Commanders— Washington Commanders won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Houston Texans is hearing

What Washington Commanders is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.