Week 15 · NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Houston Texans a 63% chance to beat Jacksonville Jaguars in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#17 AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

43% to make the playoffs

@

#13 AFC South

Houston Texans

68% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadHouston Texans −4.5Model
Projected scoreJacksonville Jaguars 20 — Houston Texans 24

Houston Texans is the pick by 4.5, but it's live — 63% on the model.

Chaos meter74 · LIVE
74/ 100
CalmMayhem

Jacksonville Jaguars

37%

to win

Houston Texans

63%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Jacksonville Jaguars
vs
Houston Texans
#14Offense · EPA/play#21
#3Defense · EPA/play#1
#15Success rate#28

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

48 meetings since 1999

Houston Texans leads 32–16

Last met 2025 · Houston Texans 36–29 Jacksonville Jaguars— Houston Texans won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Jacksonville Jaguars is hearing

What Houston Texans is hearing

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