FBS Independent · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Notre Dame to finish 12-0 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 52%, averaging 11.4 wins across 12 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
12-0
52% likely
Expected wins
11.4
12 rated games
Vegas win total
11.5
market
Model vs market
-0.1
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
vs Miami
Week 10 · 80% to win
Easiest game
vs Rice
Week 2 · 99% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.