#4 FBS Independent
Notre Dame
Projected 11–1 · 11.4 proj. wins
Playoff:IN
Playoff
83%
Title
22%
Win conf
100%
SOS
#50
Schedule & outlook
- W1vs Wisconsin96%
- W2vs Rice99%
- W3vs Michigan State98%
- W4@ Purdue98%
- W5@ North Carolina97%
- W6vs Stanford99%
- W7@ BYU87%
- W9vs Navy97%
- W10vs Miami80%
- W11vs Boston College99%
- W12vs SMU94%
- W13@ Syracuse97%
Chaos meter31 · SIMMERING
CalmMayhem
Path to the playoff
- LOCKWin out → a top-four seed and a first-round bye.
- RISKDrop one you should win → the bubble math turns ugly.
- CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.
Full odds
- Make the 12
- 83%
- 16-team field
- 87%
- 24-team field
- 92%
- Win conference
- 100%
- National title
- 22%
Rooting guide
Beyond Notre Dame's own games, here's who to scoreboard-watch — the teams chasing the same playoff spots.
At-large dogfight
Closest teams to you in the national race — every loss helps.
Oregon64%
Indiana63%
Miami58%
Ohio State52%
The buzz
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Board 70 · Polls 67 · Model 72 · Updated Jun 21, 2026