#1 FBS Independent

Notre Dame

Projected 11–1 · 11 proj. wins

Playoff:IN

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Notre Dame win? The Ninjas project 11.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

82%

Title

22%

Win conf

>99%

SOS

#50

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Wisconsin96%
W2vs Rice99%
W3vs Michigan State98%
W4@ Purdue98%
W5@ North Carolina97%
W6vs Stanford99%
W7@ BYU85%
W9vs Navy97%
W10vs Miami80%
W11vs Boston College99%
W12vs SMU94%
W13@ Syracuse97%

Chaos meter32 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → a top-four seed and a first-round bye.
RISKDrop one you should win → the bubble math turns ugly.
CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.

Full odds

Make the 12: 82%
16-team field: 86%
24-team field: 92%
Win conference: >99%
National title: 22%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 82% → 82%

Pre 82%Aug 82%

Up next

vs Wisconsin· W196% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Notre Dame finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

+24.4 · off #4 / def #13

Talent composite

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#12

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

37%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#4

EPA / play#6
Success rate#24
Explosiveness#1

Defense#13

EPA / play#9
Success rate#14

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

4★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-8

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.