Mid-American Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Ohio to finish 5-5 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 27%, averaging 5.1 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
5-5
27% likely
Expected wins
5.1
10 rated games
Vegas win total
6.5
market
Model vs market
-1.4
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Nebraska
Week 1 · 11% to win
Easiest game
vs Ball State
Week 12 · 82% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.