Pac-12 Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Oregon St to finish 3-7 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 29%, averaging 2.8 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-7
29% likely
Expected wins
2.8
10 rated games
Vegas win total
3.5
market
Model vs market
-0.7
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
vs Texas Tech
Week 2 · 4% to win
Easiest game
at UTEP
Week 4 · 65% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.