#119 Pac-12 Conference

Oregon St

Projected 4–7 · 4 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Oregon St win? The Ninjas project 4.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

41%

SOS

#63

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Houston6%
W2vs Texas Tech4%
W3vs Montana85%
W4@ UTEP65%
W5@ Colorado St41%
W6vs San Diego State27%
W7vs Washington St38%
W9@ Fresno State18%
W10vs Texas St33%
W11@ Boise State10%
W12vs Utah State43%

Chaos meter22 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin the Pac-12 Conference → the auto-bid and you're in.
RISKLose to Texas Tech → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 3%
Win conference: 41%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ Houston· W16% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Oregon St finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#126

-15.9 · off #125 / def #96

Talent composite

#60

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#64

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

52%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#125

EPA / play#121
Success rate#68
Explosiveness#135

Defense#96

EPA / play#88
Success rate#40

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-15

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.