FBS Independent · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects UConn to finish 5-6 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 25%, averaging 4.9 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
5-6
25% likely
Expected wins
4.9
11 rated games
Vegas win total
5.5
market
Model vs market
-0.6
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
vs James Madison
Week 11 · 21% to win
Easiest game
vs UMass
Week 8 · 81% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.