← Week 1 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 1

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

6 of the 43 college football games in Week 1 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by North Texas at Indiana. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • North Texas at Indiana2 spots swing · 93% home

    If Indiana wins
    Boise State make the field

    If North Texas wins
    North Texas make the field

  • Missouri St at Texas A&M2 spots swing · 98% home

    If Texas A&M wins
    Texas A&M make the field

    If Missouri St wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Fresno State at USC2 spots swing · 91% home

    If USC wins
    USC make the field

    If Fresno State wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Louisville at Ole Miss2 spots swing · 66% home

    If Ole Miss wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If Louisville wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Tulane at Duke2 spots swing · 50% home

    If Duke wins
    Boise State make the field

    If Tulane wins
    Tulane make the field

  • W Michigan at Michigan2 spots swing · 93% home

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

    If W Michigan wins
    Ole Miss make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.