← Week 12 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 12

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

8 of the 65 college football games in Week 12 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by UCLA at Michigan. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • UCLA at Michigan2 spots swing · 83% home

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

    If UCLA wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • LSU at Tennessee2 spots swing · 48% home

    If Tennessee wins
    Michigan make the field

    If LSU wins
    LSU make the field

  • Maryland at USC2 spots swing · 92% home

    If USC wins
    USC make the field

    If Maryland wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Texas Tech at Baylor2 spots swing · 24% home

    If Baylor wins
    BYU make the field

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

  • BYU at Kansas2 spots swing · 27% home

    If Kansas wins
    Texas Tech make the field

    If BYU wins
    BYU make the field

  • Texas A&M at Oklahoma2 spots swing · 51% home

    If Oklahoma wins
    Oklahoma make the field

    If Texas A&M wins
    Texas A&M make the field

  • North Texas at Tulane2 spots swing · 54% home

    If Tulane wins
    Tulane make the field

    If North Texas wins
    Boise State make the field

  • San Diego State at Boise State2 spots swing · 69% home

    If Boise State wins
    Boise State make the field

    If San Diego State wins
    Tulane make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.