Week 5 · NFL

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives New England Patriots a 74% chance to beat Las Vegas Raiders in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#29 AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders

3% to make the playoffs

@

#15 AFC East

New England Patriots

63% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadNew England Patriots −8.5Vegas
Projected scoreLas Vegas Raiders 18 — New England Patriots 26

New England Patriots is the pick by 8.5, but it's live — 74% on the model.

Chaos meter53 · LIVE
53/ 100
CalmMayhem

Las Vegas Raiders

26%

to win

New England Patriots

74%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Las Vegas Raiders
vs
New England Patriots
#32Offense · EPA/play#1
#21Defense · EPA/play#11
#30Success rate#3

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

11 meetings since 1999

New England Patriots leads 7–4

Last met 2025 · New England Patriots 13–20 Las Vegas Raiders— Las Vegas Raiders won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Las Vegas Raiders is hearing

What New England Patriots is hearing

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