Premier League · 2026/27
Chelsea FC
Projected 4th · 70 pts
The Ninjas' projection
Win title
8%
Top 4 (UCL)
68%
Relegation
<1%
Exp. points
70
avg finish 3.9
Our title odds call · month by month
▲2Pre 6% → 8%
Pre 6%Aug 8%Sep 8%
Call the Finish
Where does Chelsea finish? The Ninjas project 4th.
Tap a spot to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.
2026/27 fixtures · model win probability
Each match, from Chelsea's side — the model's odds they win / draw / lose. They add up to 100%.
- MD1A
Fulham3-2 - MD2H
Brighton Hove4-3 - MD3A
Arsenal20% / 23% / 57% - MD4H
Hull City57% / 22% / 21% - MD5A
Brentford31% / 25% / 44% - MD6H
Bournemouth46% / 24% / 30% - MD7A
Everton33% / 26% / 41% - MD8H
Tottenham49% / 24% / 27% - MD9H
Man United41% / 24% / 34% - MD10A
Sunderland34% / 26% / 40% - MD11H
Leeds United49% / 24% / 27% - MD12A
Nottingham33% / 25% / 41% - MD13H
Crystal Palace49% / 25% / 26% - MD14H
Liverpool44% / 24% / 32% - MD15A
Man City21% / 22% / 56% - MD16H
Aston Villa44% / 25% / 31% - MD17A
Coventry City42% / 25% / 33% - MD18A
Ipswich Town42% / 25% / 33% - MD19H
Newcastle47% / 24% / 28% - MD20ACrystal Palace35% / 26% / 39%
- MD21HSunderland48% / 25% / 27%
- MD22ALeeds United34% / 25% / 41%
- MD23HNottingham47% / 25% / 28%
- MD24AMan United27% / 23% / 49%
- MD25ANewcastle33% / 25% / 42%
- MD26HIpswich Town57% / 22% / 21%
- MD27AAston Villa30% / 25% / 45%
- MD28HCoventry City57% / 22% / 21%
- MD29HArsenal32% / 26% / 42%
- MD30AHull City42% / 25% / 33%
- MD31HFulham47% / 25% / 28%
- MD32ABrighton Hove30% / 25% / 44%
- MD33HMan City34% / 25% / 41%
- MD34ALiverpool30% / 24% / 46%
- MD35ATottenham35% / 25% / 40%
- MD36HEverton47% / 25% / 28%
- MD37ABournemouth31% / 24% / 44%
- MD38HBrentford46% / 25% / 30%
Win / draw / loss from Chelsea's view, from the Poisson match model. See the full table for how it's built.
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