Mid-American Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects UMass to finish 3-6 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 29%, averaging 2.9 wins across 9 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-6
29% likely
Expected wins
2.9
9 rated games
Vegas win total
—
no line posted
Model vs market
—
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Rutgers
Week 1 · 12% to win
Easiest game
vs Ball State
Week 10 · 64% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.