American Athletic Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects North Texas to finish 7-4 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 29%, averaging 7.1 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
7-4
29% likely
Expected wins
7.1
11 rated games
Vegas win total
—
no line posted
Model vs market
—
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Indiana
Week 1 · 6% to win
Easiest game
vs Charlotte
Week 6 · 94% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.