Atlantic Coast Conference · 2026

Updated Aug 30, 2026

Pittsburgh schedule

The TailgateNinjas model projects Pittsburgh to finish 7-4 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 26%, averaging 6.5 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.

Projected record

7-4

26% likely

Expected wins

6.5

11 rated games

Vegas win total

7.5

market

Model vs market

-1.0

we're lower

Every game

Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.

How the season could end

The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.

  • 7-426%
  • 6-524%
  • 8-318%
  • 5-615%
  • 9-27%
  • 4-76%
  • 3-82%
  • 10-11%

Hardest game

at Miami

Week 8 · 9% to win

Easiest game

vs Miami (OH)

Week 1 · 81% to win

Swing games

Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.

Virginia Tech 57%Florida State 56%California 52%