#38 Atlantic Coast Conference

Pittsburgh

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Pittsburgh win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

11%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#64

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Miami (OH)81%
W2vs UCF73%
W3vs Syracuse77%
W4vs Bucknell98%
W5@ Virginia Tech57%
W6vs North Carolina75%
W7@ Boston College73%
W8@ Miami9%
W9vs Georgia Tech64%
W11vs Florida State56%
W12@ Louisville38%
W13@ California52%

Chaos meter40 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Miami → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 11%
16-team field: 16%
24-team field: 27%
Win conference: 4%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 11% → 11%

Pre 11%Aug 11%

Up next

vs Miami (OH)· W181% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Pittsburgh finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#36

+8.4 · off #39 / def #47

Talent composite

#56

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#51

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

75%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#39

EPA / play#62
Success rate#99
Explosiveness#19

Defense#47

EPA / play#27
Success rate#11

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

2.9★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-5

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.