Big Ten Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Purdue to finish 2-9 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 29%, averaging 2.6 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
2-9
29% likely
Expected wins
2.6
11 rated games
Vegas win total
3.5
market
Model vs market
-0.9
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
vs Notre Dame
Week 4 · 2% to win
Easiest game
vs Maryland
Week 10 · 54% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.