Big Ten Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects USC to finish 8-4 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 28%, averaging 8.3 wins across 12 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
8-4
28% likely
Expected wins
8.3
12 rated games
Vegas win total
8.5
market
Model vs market
-0.2
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Indiana
Week 11 · 22% to win
Easiest game
vs San José St
Week 1 · 98% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.