← Week 11 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 11

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

7 of the 65 college football games in Week 11 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by Texas at LSU. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • Texas at LSU2 spots swing · 40% home

    If LSU wins
    LSU make the field

    If Texas wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Michigan at Oregon2 spots swing · 78% home

    If Oregon wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Tennessee at Texas A&M2 spots swing · 68% home

    If Texas A&M wins
    Texas A&M make the field

    If Tennessee wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Baylor at BYU2 spots swing · 77% home

    If BYU wins
    BYU make the field

    If Baylor wins
    Texas Tech make the field

  • Ole Miss at Oklahoma2 spots swing · 60% home

    If Oklahoma wins
    Oklahoma make the field

    If Ole Miss wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Texas Tech at Oklahoma State2 spots swing · 18% home

    If Oklahoma State wins
    BYU make the field

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

  • Oregon St at Boise State2 spots swing · 89% home

    If Boise State wins
    Boise State make the field

    If Oregon St wins
    Tulane make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.