← Week 4 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 4

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

7 of the 57 college football games in Week 4 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by Oklahoma at Georgia. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • Oklahoma at Georgia2 spots swing · 68% home

    If Georgia wins
    Michigan make the field

    If Oklahoma wins
    Oklahoma make the field

  • Ole Miss at Florida2 spots swing · 55% home

    If Florida wins
    Michigan make the field

    If Ole Miss wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Iowa at Michigan2 spots swing · 74% home

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

    If Iowa wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Oregon at USC2 spots swing · 33% home

    If USC wins
    USC make the field

    If Oregon wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Texas A&M at LSU2 spots swing · 54% home

    If LSU wins
    LSU make the field

    If Texas A&M wins
    Texas A&M make the field

  • Sam Houston at Texas Tech2 spots swing · 99% home

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

    If Sam Houston wins
    BYU make the field

  • Boise State at W Michigan2 spots swing · 39% home

    If W Michigan wins
    Tulane make the field

    If Boise State wins
    Boise State make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.