#14 Southeastern Conference

Alabama

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:BUBBLE

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Alabama win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

31%

Title

Win conf

10%

SOS

#23

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs East Carolina87%
W2@ Kentucky77%
W3vs Florida State80%
W4vs South Carolina75%
W5@ Mississippi St79%
W6vs Georgia48%
W7@ Tennessee52%
W8vs Texas A&M54%
W10@ LSU41%
W11@ Vanderbilt72%
W12vs Chattanooga99%
W13vs Auburn75%

Chaos meter62 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to LSU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSWin out, then scoreboard-watch → contenders ahead have to slip.

Full odds

Make the 12: 31%
16-team field: 39%
24-team field: 51%
Win conference: 10%
National title: 2%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 31% → 31%

Pre 31%Aug 31%

Up next

vs East Carolina· W187% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Alabama finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#20

+14.8 · off #36 / def #11

Talent composite

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

43%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#36

EPA / play#38
Success rate#56
Explosiveness#48

Defense#11

EPA / play#28
Success rate#22

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.3★ avg

Portal out

3.3★ avg

Net

-7

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.