American Athletic Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026TailgateNinjas gives North Texas a 4% chance to make the 2026 College Football Playoff. Updated August 29, 2026.
Chance to make the 12-team playoff
4%
No change since the previous projection
Since preseason
4% → 4%
Our rank
#37
of 136
Projected field
Outside
Conference title
14%
National title
0%
Most likely record 7-4 (29% likely) across the 11 games we rate, averaging 7.1 wins. The toughest game left is at Indiana (6% to win). 1 other game is against a non-FBS opponent we don't rate.
Full schedule + record distribution →Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated.
One email on Tuesdays: which teams gained and lost ground on the playoff board, and where our last set of calls was wrong.
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