Big Ten Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Oregon to finish 10-1 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 34%, averaging 9.3 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
10-1
34% likely
Expected wins
9.3
11 rated games
Vegas win total
10.5
market
Model vs market
-1.2
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Ohio State
Week 10 · 46% to win
Easiest game
vs Northwestern
Week 9 · 95% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.