#3 Big Ten Conference

Oregon

Projected 10–2 · 10 proj. wins

Playoff:IN

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Oregon win? The Ninjas project 10.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

65%

Title

12%

Win conf

25%

SOS

#27

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Boise State95%
W2@ Oklahoma State93%
W3vs Portland State>99%
W4@ USC69%
W6vs UCLA94%
W7vs Nebraska93%
W8@ Illinois86%
W9vs Northwestern95%
W10@ Ohio State46%
W11vs Michigan80%
W12@ Michigan State94%
W13vs Washington89%

Chaos meter58 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → a top-four seed and a first-round bye.
RISKLose to Ohio State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.

Full odds

Make the 12: 65%
16-team field: 74%
24-team field: 84%
Win conference: 25%
National title: 12%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 65% → 65%

Pre 65%Aug 65%

Up next

vs Boise State· W195% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Oregon finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

+25.9 · off #10 / def #5

Talent composite

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

19%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#10

EPA / play#12
Success rate#16
Explosiveness#20

Defense#5

EPA / play#13
Success rate#15

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.3★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-18

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.