Sun Belt Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Southern Miss to finish 4-7 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 26%, averaging 3.8 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
4-7
26% likely
Expected wins
3.8
11 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-0.7
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Auburn
Week 2 · 8% to win
Easiest game
at UL Monroe
Week 9 · 58% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.